RESEARCH
Methods before narratives.
Short, auditable notes on prediction-market data, execution context and observable participant behavior.
Method note 01
Why the settlement reference comes first
A prediction-market price cannot be interpreted before the exact window, resolution rule and reference source are confirmed.
Read note →Method note 02Best ask is not execution cost
A finite order consumes depth. The executable price therefore depends on size, book completeness, slippage and fees.
Read note →Method note 03Observable scale without “Smart Money”
Large observable activity is useful context, but it does not establish identity, skill, intent or future direction.
Read note →