OBSERVED SNAPSHOTS · NOT LIVE QUOTES
A Recorded BTC Order Book: Compare $10, $50, $100 and $200 Budgets
Reproduce budget, slippage and fee calculations from dated public BTC five-minute order books, with full inputs, source timestamps and explicit limits.
The short answer
This dated case compares four total budgets on recorded UP and DOWN ask snapshots from the same BTC five-minute market. Inputs and source times are preserved; share counts, slippage and fees are reproducible models, not observed fills. The two sides were fetched sequentially. The case demonstrates size-aware calculation, not current liquidity, a simultaneous opportunity or a promised trade result.
Evidence boundary: official documentation establishes platform mechanics and source behavior; calculations, examples and interpretations are PolyCerno Research analysis. They do not guarantee an outcome or profit.
Terms used in this guide
- Observed snapshot
- A frozen public order-book observation with its source and capture timestamps retained.
- Modeled fill
- An arithmetic allocation across supplied asks, without simulating order execution or queue priority.
- Convenience sample
- A bounded collection made when available, not a randomized or representative market-wide sample.
The first usable UP/DOWN pair in the collection
This case selects the first usable UP/DOWN pair for the same market from the published collection, not the most dramatic result. Inspect the original market. Market pages and books can change after capture; the downloaded input file preserves our observation.
| Side | Market | Source time | Fetched time | Fee curve |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UP | btc-updown-5m-1789533900 | 2026-09-16T04:46:37.717Z | 2026-09-16T04:46:37.734Z | 0.07 × [p × (1 − p)]^1 |
| DOWN | btc-updown-5m-1789533900 | 2026-09-16T04:46:38.424Z | 2026-09-16T04:46:38.437Z | 0.07 × [p × (1 − p)]^1 |
Budget results on each frozen book
| Side | Budget ($) | Shares | Average ($) | Slippage (%) | Fee ($) | Unspent ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UP | 10 | 15.240922 | 0.64 | 0 | 0.24581 | 0 |
| UP | 50 | 76.204641 | 0.64 | 0 | 1.22903 | 0 |
| UP | 100 | 152.409281 | 0.64 | 0 | 2.45806 | 0 |
| UP | 200 | 304.818578 | 0.64 | 0 | 4.91611 | 0 |
| DOWN | 10 | 25.885486 | 0.37 | 0 | 0.42237 | 0 |
| DOWN | 50 | 129.427378 | 0.37 | 0 | 2.11187 | 0 |
| DOWN | 100 | 258.854784 | 0.37 | 0 | 4.22373 | 0 |
| DOWN | 200 | 517.709541 | 0.37 | 0 | 8.44747 | 0 |
Reproduce rather than trust a screenshot
Download observed inputs (JSON) · Download calculated results (JSON)
Input file SHA-256: 8968097efcbbba3c45b6a66183b3ef2e14ed1a2a96d93e2ce6ebcf4b51829add. Values are frozen historical observations, not current quotes. The files contain public market data, not account or user records.
- In the inputs file, use observation indices 0 and 1 (zero-based).
- Copy snapshot.asks as price,shares rows into the free calculator, using dollars, not cents.
- Enter that snapshot’s fee rate and exponent as an explicit custom assumption; choose total budget including fees.
- Compare 10, 50, 100 and 200 with no price cap. Keep the historical source timestamp with any shared calculation.
Average price = purchase cost / shares; slippage = (average / best supplied ask − 1) × 100. The input file preserves all supplied ask levels, not just the best price.
Selection and capture method
On September 16, 2026, we made six paired UP/DOWN requests approximately 45 seconds apart through PolyCerno’s public read-only snapshot adapter. It normalizes Polymarket Gamma market metadata and CLOB asks. Requests were sequential, not simultaneous. The collection interval was to .
This convenience sample covers 2 market windows and 12 returned snapshots from 12 requests. 0 requests failed; 1 returned snapshots were excluded from cost summaries. Only non-empty, untruncated books with known fees and timestamps, marked VERIFIED by the adapter at capture, are usable. VERIFIED checks source context and timing; it is not a fill guarantee or an independent audit of every upstream value.
What this observation cannot tell you
There are only 11 usable snapshots from 2 windows. Repeated observations are correlated, and UP/DOWN quotes were not fetched simultaneously. This is not a random sample, a long-term market benchmark, a latency study, a settlement reconstruction or evidence of a profitable strategy. The sample cannot establish which phase is normally more liquid.
We walk visible asks with fractional shares and the captured fee curve, using a total budget including estimated fees. Slippage is relative to the best ask in that same snapshot. Per-level fee rounding differs from possible real per-match rounding. Minimum size, tick/order constraints, cancellations, queue position and changing prices are not simulated. Unavailable values are excluded, never replaced by zero.
Sources and further reading
Article updated . Source interfaces and market rules can change; verify the current market before relying on a field. Teaching numbers are constructed examples; source facts and calculations should be read separately.
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