RISK & DATA
Risk & Data Disclaimer
1. Information product
PolyCerno organizes market information and derived observations for research and decision support. Content is general information, not individualized financial, investment, legal or tax advice, and not an offer, solicitation or instruction to buy, sell or hold an asset or position. You decide independently whether and how to act.
2. No custody or trade execution
PolyCerno does not connect to your trading wallet, request trading credentials, place orders, route trades, custody trading funds or act as an exchange, broker, adviser or fiduciary. Subscription payment addresses are used only to identify payments for access.
3. Sources and independence
The Service may use information associated with Polymarket, Binance, Chainlink, Polygon and other public or third-party sources. PolyCerno is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by those services. A source name identifies provenance only. Source methods, interfaces and availability may change without notice.
4. Data quality and availability
Source data can be delayed, incomplete, unavailable, duplicated, corrected, reordered, sampled or conflicting. Network interruption, rate limits, software defects, clock differences and source outages can affect displays. Quality labels, freshness checks and conflict states help expose uncertainty but cannot eliminate source error or prove completeness. A blank or unavailable value should not be treated as zero.
5. Time, synchronization and settlement
A five-minute market can change faster than data is collected, transmitted, processed and displayed. Values shown together may have different source timestamps. Blockchain observations also depend on block production, confirmations, reorganization risk and RPC availability. You must verify the governing market rules, settlement source, target value, expiry and final result directly with the relevant market.
6. Directional reads
A directional read summarizes selected evidence under the current method and data state. Labels such as UP, DOWN, balanced, strengthening, favored or reversal risk describe a conditional analytical view; they are not probabilities, trade instructions or guarantees. Evidence can conflict, change rapidly or reverse after the displayed time.
7. Execution-cost estimates
Displayed asks, depth, price impact, fees, fill rates, VWAP or executable-cost estimates are snapshots or simulations based on observable order-book data and configured assumptions. They do not reserve liquidity or guarantee a fill. Actual execution can differ because of latency, queue position, cancellation, slippage, fees, partial fills, market movement or unavailable liquidity.
8. Observable activity and wallet analysis
Public transaction activity does not reveal every participant, hedge, private position, motive or beneficial owner. One wallet may represent several people or systems, and one person may control several wallets. A proxy wallet is an analytical identifier, not a verified natural person. Gross buying does not equal remaining exposure, skill, intent or future direction. Fixed thresholds and cohorts reduce discretionary selection but do not create a complete market view.
9. Cross-market context
Price or flow changes in BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB or another market may provide context without causing or predicting the contract move. Different venues can have different liquidity, participants, latency and pricing. Correlation and short-term co-movement can disappear without warning.
10. History, replay and performance
Historical rounds and compressed replays show selected recorded observations under a particular method version. They may exclude unavailable or ineligible states and may be reconstructed from retained samples. Historical alignment, a resolved result or a prior successful read does not establish a future hit rate or expected return. Always consider the visible sample size, exclusions and method version.
11. Market and financial risk
Prediction markets, digital assets and stablecoins can be highly volatile. You may lose all money committed to a position through an incorrect view, repricing, illiquidity, settlement interpretation, smart-contract failure, wallet compromise, network failure, platform action or legal restriction. Only use amounts you can afford to lose and obtain independent professional advice where appropriate.
12. Legal and availability risk
Prediction-market access and related activity may be restricted in your location. The Service is not offered where prohibited by applicable law, sanctions or regulatory restrictions. You are responsible for your eligibility and compliance. Features, sources and access may be corrected, suspended, limited or discontinued for legal, security, operational or commercial reasons.
13. Contact
Questions about a source, calculation, quality state or this disclaimer may be sent to contact@polycerno.com. Include the market or session identifier and timestamp when possible.