BTC Five-Minute Liquidity Observations: A Reproducible September 16 Sample

Collection method and denominator

On September 16, 2026, we made six paired UP/DOWN requests approximately 45 seconds apart through PolyCerno’s public read-only snapshot adapter. It normalizes Polymarket Gamma market metadata and CLOB asks. Requests were sequential, not simultaneous. The collection interval was 2026-09-16T04:46:37.034Z to 2026-09-16T04:50:30.622Z.

This convenience sample covers 2 market windows and 12 returned snapshots from 12 requests. 0 requests failed; 1 returned snapshots were excluded from cost summaries. Only non-empty, untruncated books with known fees and timestamps, marked VERIFIED by the adapter at capture, are usable. VERIFIED checks source context and timing; it is not a fill guarantee or an independent audit of every upstream value.

Observed cost distribution by total budget

Each budget uses the same 11 usable snapshots. Min, median and max describe this sample only; no population estimate or confidence claim is implied.

Complete means the supplied model supported the requested total budget; it does not mean a real order was filled. A zero median does not imply every observation had zero slippage.

Phase coverage, not a phase ranking

Phase groups are imbalanced and too small for comparative claims. A future edition needs a predeclared sampling window and substantially broader independent coverage before discussing typical behavior.

Observation and exclusion ledger

Download and independently recalculate

Research data use terms v1.0 apply to this edition; public access does not grant unrestricted reuse.

Download observed inputs (JSON) · Download calculated results (JSON)

Input file SHA-256: 8968097efcbbba3c45b6a66183b3ef2e14ed1a2a96d93e2ce6ebcf4b51829add. Values are frozen historical observations, not current quotes. The files contain public market data, not account or user records.

The companion recorded-book case walks through two inputs. Use the calculator to reproduce the arithmetic. To cite this edition, link this page and retain its date, 11-snapshot denominator and limitations.

PolyCerno Research Data Use Terms v1.0

Version 1.0 · Published October 12, 2026 · Applies to the September 16, 2026 observation edition and the two JSON files linked above.

For PolyCerno-owned original compilation, annotations and calculated results in this edition, PolyCerno grants a limited, non-exclusive permission to download and recalculate the files for personal, non-commercial research and verification, and to quote those original summaries with attribution to PolyCerno, a link to this report, the edition date and its sampling limitations. Label any changed or recalculated result as your own. This permission does not transfer ownership.

Underlying Polymarket market metadata and order-book observations remain subject to the applicable source terms and any third-party rights. PolyCerno does not grant or sublicense rights to third-party data, names or marks. Public availability is not a declaration of public-domain status or a Creative Commons license. Repackaging, redistributing or commercially exploiting the files is not authorized by these terms; obtain any necessary permission from the relevant rights holders. Other use of the service remains governed by the Terms of Service. Contact support for permission questions.

These are frozen observations and modeled calculations supplied as is. They are not live quotes, observed fills, investment advice or a guarantee of accuracy, execution or returns. Preserve the source timestamps, exclusions and limitations when citing the report.

中文对照：本说明 v1.0 于 2026 年 10 月 12 日发布，仅适用于上述 2026 年 9 月 16 日样本及两个 JSON 文件。对于 PolyCerno 自有的原创编排、注释和计算结果，允许个人非商业研究下载、重新计算和核验，并在注明 PolyCerno、报告链接、样本日期与局限的情况下引用原创摘要；修改或重新计算的结果须标明由引用者制作，不转移所有权。

第三方市场元数据、盘口观测、名称与商标仍受来源条款及相关权利约束；PolyCerno 不授予或转授权第三方权利。公开访问不表示公有领域或 Creative Commons 授权。本说明不授权文件的重新打包、再分发或商业利用，相关用途需取得对应权利人的必要许可。其他服务使用仍遵循服务条款。数据为历史观测与模型计算，不是实时报价、真实成交、投资建议或收益保证；引用时请保留时间戳、排除项和局限。

Limitations and future editions

There are only 11 usable snapshots from 2 windows. Repeated observations are correlated, and UP/DOWN quotes were not fetched simultaneously. This is not a random sample, a long-term market benchmark, a latency study, a settlement reconstruction or evidence of a profitable strategy. The sample cannot establish which phase is normally more liquid.

We walk visible asks with fractional shares and the captured fee curve, using a total budget including estimated fees. Slippage is relative to the best ask in that same snapshot. Per-level fee rounding differs from possible real per-match rounding. Minimum size, tick/order constraints, cancellations, queue position and changing prices are not simulated. Unavailable values are excluded, never replaced by zero.

This edition is frozen. Future observations must have a new dated input artifact, documented capture interval and reviewed method. There is no automatic production collector or auto-publication job.