Method note 01
Why the settlement reference comes first
A prediction-market price cannot be interpreted before the exact window, resolution rule and reference source are confirmed.
The market identity is not the title
Human-readable titles can be reused or ambiguous. BTC5m anchors every observation to the condition ID, start and end times, rule text and resolution source.
Reference uncertainty changes the answer
Spot and time-weighted reference modes are not interchangeable. When the rule cannot support a specific mode, UNKNOWN is more honest than inference.
Operational implication
Read the window and quality state before distance, flow or participant context. A market observation attached to the wrong reference is precise but invalid.
This note describes observable data and method boundaries. It is not a recommendation for any current market.
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