Scope and product boundary
Defines what BTC5m observes and what it intentionally does not infer.
Promise
Objective market state only. No prediction, recommendation, wallet ranking, custody or execution.
- Method version
- btc5m-v1.0.0
- Review cadence
- On material source or calculation change
Window identity and phase
A condition ID and source timestamps anchor every observation to one five-minute market.
Identity rule
The condition ID is the primary market identity. Start, end, phase and resolution are stored with source and receive times.
- Method version
- btc5m-v1.0.0
- Review cadence
- On material source or calculation change
Settlement reference
Rules text and resolution source are preserved; reference mode is never guessed when unknown.
Reference modes
SPOT · TWAP_30 · TWAP_60 · UNKNOWN
UNKNOWN remains explicit until the rule source supports a more specific interpretation.
- Method version
- btc5m-v1.0.0
- Review cadence
- On material source or calculation change
Market and cross-asset state
Short-window returns remain source-timestamped observations, not directional forecasts.
Observation windows
return(t, Δ) = price(t) / price(t − Δ) − 1
Δ ∈ {5s, 15s, 30s, 60s}
- Method version
- btc5m-v1.0.0
- Review cadence
- On material source or calculation change
Execution cost
Book walking estimates finite-order VWAP for 50, 100 and 500U, separately from best price.
Finite-order estimate
VWAP(Q) = Σ(priceᵢ × filledᵢ) / Σ(filledᵢ)
A quote is unavailable when displayed depth cannot fill the selected notional without guessing.
- Method version
- btc5m-v1.0.0
- Review cadence
- On material source or calculation change
Aggressive flow
Observable taker activity is aggregated over 10, 30 and 60 seconds; unknown direction is never imputed.
Aggregation
Known-direction public trades are grouped by taker side and outcome over 10/30/60-second windows. Unknown direction stays excluded.
- Method version
- btc5m-v1.0.0
- Review cadence
- On material source or calculation change
Large events
Events are threshold observations, not evidence of intent, identity or future outcome.
Interpretation boundary
A large event says only that an observable trade crossed the configured absolute or distribution threshold.
- Method version
- btc5m-v1.0.0
- Review cadence
- On material source or calculation change
Participant qualification
Observable BUY notional within one condition qualifies a proxy wallet at a selected threshold.
Qualification
Σ(observable BUY size × price) within one condition ≥ threshold
Supported thresholds: 50, 100, 250, 500 and 1000U. Gross buying does not equal remaining risk.
- Method version
- btc5m-v1.0.0
- Review cadence
- On material source or calculation change
Participant history
Direction hit rate uses verified resolved rounds only and always displays its sample size.
Direction hit rate
verified resolved rounds matching winning outcome / verified rounds with explicit direction
Neutral, unknown and unverified rounds are excluded and counted separately.
- Method version
- btc5m-v1.0.0
- Review cadence
- On material source or calculation change
Quality states
VERIFIED, PROVISIONAL, STALE, CONFLICT and UNAVAILABLE describe usability at the field or module level.
State vocabulary
VERIFIED · PROVISIONAL · STALE · CONFLICT · UNAVAILABLE
Each envelope includes as-of time, source time, receive time, age, coverage, reasons and method version.
- Method version
- btc5m-v1.0.0
- Review cadence
- On material source or calculation change
Fallback and missing data
No missing value is replaced with a directional guess. Last-known values require visible age and state.
Display rule
Preserve the last-known value only when its age and degraded state remain adjacent. Otherwise show UNAVAILABLE.
- Method version
- btc5m-v1.0.0
- Review cadence
- On material source or calculation change
Versioning and audit
Material changes receive an effective date, method version and changelog entry.
Material change
A calculation, source, threshold, exclusion or quality-state change requires a new method version and dated changelog entry.
- Method version
- btc5m-v1.0.0
- Review cadence
- On material source or calculation change