BTC5M METHODOLOGY

The method is part of the product.

Exact definitions, source posture, freshness rules, fallback behavior and limitations for the current BTC5m method.

btc5m-v1.0.0Effective 2026-08-11Reviewed 2026-08-11
01

Scope and product boundary

Defines what BTC5m observes and what it intentionally does not infer.

Promise

Objective market state only. No prediction, recommendation, wallet ranking, custody or execution.

Method version
btc5m-v1.0.0
Review cadence
On material source or calculation change
02

Window identity and phase

A condition ID and source timestamps anchor every observation to one five-minute market.

Identity rule

The condition ID is the primary market identity. Start, end, phase and resolution are stored with source and receive times.

Method version
btc5m-v1.0.0
Review cadence
On material source or calculation change
03

Settlement reference

Rules text and resolution source are preserved; reference mode is never guessed when unknown.

Reference modes

SPOT · TWAP_30 · TWAP_60 · UNKNOWN

UNKNOWN remains explicit until the rule source supports a more specific interpretation.

Method version
btc5m-v1.0.0
Review cadence
On material source or calculation change
04

Market and cross-asset state

Short-window returns remain source-timestamped observations, not directional forecasts.

Observation windows

return(t, Δ) = price(t) / price(t − Δ) − 1

Δ ∈ {5s, 15s, 30s, 60s}

Method version
btc5m-v1.0.0
Review cadence
On material source or calculation change
05

Execution cost

Book walking estimates finite-order VWAP for 50, 100 and 500U, separately from best price.

Finite-order estimate

VWAP(Q) = Σ(priceᵢ × filledᵢ) / Σ(filledᵢ)

A quote is unavailable when displayed depth cannot fill the selected notional without guessing.

Method version
btc5m-v1.0.0
Review cadence
On material source or calculation change
06

Aggressive flow

Observable taker activity is aggregated over 10, 30 and 60 seconds; unknown direction is never imputed.

Aggregation

Known-direction public trades are grouped by taker side and outcome over 10/30/60-second windows. Unknown direction stays excluded.

Method version
btc5m-v1.0.0
Review cadence
On material source or calculation change
07

Large events

Events are threshold observations, not evidence of intent, identity or future outcome.

Interpretation boundary

A large event says only that an observable trade crossed the configured absolute or distribution threshold.

Method version
btc5m-v1.0.0
Review cadence
On material source or calculation change
08

Participant qualification

Observable BUY notional within one condition qualifies a proxy wallet at a selected threshold.

Qualification

Σ(observable BUY size × price) within one condition ≥ threshold

Supported thresholds: 50, 100, 250, 500 and 1000U. Gross buying does not equal remaining risk.

Method version
btc5m-v1.0.0
Review cadence
On material source or calculation change
09

Participant history

Direction hit rate uses verified resolved rounds only and always displays its sample size.

Direction hit rate

verified resolved rounds matching winning outcome / verified rounds with explicit direction

Neutral, unknown and unverified rounds are excluded and counted separately.

Method version
btc5m-v1.0.0
Review cadence
On material source or calculation change
10

Quality states

VERIFIED, PROVISIONAL, STALE, CONFLICT and UNAVAILABLE describe usability at the field or module level.

State vocabulary

VERIFIED · PROVISIONAL · STALE · CONFLICT · UNAVAILABLE

Each envelope includes as-of time, source time, receive time, age, coverage, reasons and method version.

Method version
btc5m-v1.0.0
Review cadence
On material source or calculation change
11

Fallback and missing data

No missing value is replaced with a directional guess. Last-known values require visible age and state.

Display rule

Preserve the last-known value only when its age and degraded state remain adjacent. Otherwise show UNAVAILABLE.

Method version
btc5m-v1.0.0
Review cadence
On material source or calculation change
12

Versioning and audit

Material changes receive an effective date, method version and changelog entry.

Material change

A calculation, source, threshold, exclusion or quality-state change requires a new method version and dated changelog entry.

Method version
btc5m-v1.0.0
Review cadence
On material source or calculation change